Beyond Signatures

India’s recent trade diplomacy has produced an unusual paradox. New Delhi is negotiating or concluding trade agreements with a range of partners even as questions persist about what earlier agreements have actually delivered. For years, the debate centred on whether India should sign more free trade agreements. Today, the more important question may be how those agreements should be judged once they come into force. The shift is significant because India is no longer approaching trade agreements from a position of hesitation.

Having concluded deals with major partners and as it pursues others, New Delhi has clearly decided that greater engagement with global markets forms part of its economic strategy. Yet the enthusiasm surrounding new agreements has revived an older debate about whether previous pacts generated the export growth, investment inflows and manufacturing gains that were originally anticipated. The world confronting Indian policymakers is also very different from the one in which many earlier agreements were negotiated. Trade now sits at the intersection of economics, geopolitics and national security.

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The return of tariffs, growing strategic rivalry between major powers and concerns over supply-chain resilience have transformed trade policy from a largely commercial exercise into an instrument of economic statecraft. For India, this creates both opportunities and dilemmas. Global companies seeking alternatives to China present a chance to expand manufacturing and attract investment. At the same time, policymakers must weigh the interests of exporters, domestic industry, consumers and strategic planners. Market access abroad often requires concessions at home. Greater integration can strengthen competitiveness but may also expose vulnerable sectors to new pressures.

The challenge is compounded by the fact that modern trade agreements increasingly extend beyond tariffs. They encompass investment rules, digital commerce, intellectual property, supply-chain cooperation and regulatory standards. Their impact therefore reaches deep into domestic economic policy, making careful evaluation far more important than in earlier decades. The politics of trade liberalisation are therefore becoming more complex. Governments increasingly need to reconcile external economic commitments with domestic political constraints.

In India, where agriculture, manufacturing and small enterprises remain politically sensitive, trade policy cannot be assessed solely through diplomatic announcements or headline trade figures. Agreements that look successful on paper must ultimately prove their worth through tangible economic outcomes. That is why the debate is gradually shifting from signing agreements to evaluating them. The relevant question is no longer how many FTAs India can conclude, but whether they strengthen exports, improve competitiveness, attract investment and support long-term economic development.

A mature trade policy requires a framework that measures results rather than intentions. India’s ambitions as a major economic power will depend not only on its ability to negotiate agreements but also on its willingness to assess them honestly. In a world where trade has become inseparable from geopolitics, counting signatures may generate headlines. Counting outcomes is what will determine success.